ChangeS Webinar Series 2011-2012

Sept 16th, 2011
Hierarchical Models for Ensembles of Climate Model Projections
Prof. Bruno Sansò - Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, UC Santa Cruz


We discuss a general methodology to obtain unified predictions from ensembles of climate multi-model simulations. The method is based on the assumption that model simulations and historical records correspond to a common underlying climate signal. Historical records are used to assess the accuracy of the different climate models. The discrepancies between model simulations and the climate signal are estimated within a Bayesian hierarchical model. These are then used to correct future model predictions and to produce a unified prediction that is the result of blending all sources of information. Using a Bayesian framework, we are able to produce a probabilistic quantification of the prediction uncertainty. In this talk we consider three examples. The first one is based on global climate models over large continental regions. The second one consists of predictions for indexes that describe large scale features of the Pacific Ocean. The third example considers and ensemble of regional climate model simulations within the context of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

Speaker: Prof. Bruno Sansò holds a PhD in Mathematics from the Universidad Central de Venezuela. His work focuses on Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling, environmental and geostatistical applications, modeling of extreme values and statistical assessment of climate variability. He is an Editor for Bayesian Analysis, and and Associate Editor for Technometrics. He is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute and a Fellow of the American Statistical Association.

Time: Sept, 16th 2011 3:00 pm (Rome CET)
Duration: 1 hour. The presentation will be 45 minutes + 15 minutes Q&A

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References and related material:

- Joint Projections of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature from Different Global Climate Models
F. Beltràn, B. Sansò, R. Lemos, R. Mendelssohn, 2011

Comparing and Blending Regional Climate Model Predictions for the American Southwest E. Salazar, B. Sansò, A. Finley, D. Hammerling, I. Steinsland, X. Wang, P. Delamater; 2011

- Joint Projections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models: a hierarchical Bayesian approach
C. Tebaldi; B. Sansò; 2008

- Presentation Slides (.pdf)